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Week of Jul 21

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Calendar

Economic events and earnings — week of July 21, 2026.

Research

Weekly market brief — updated every Sunday by SWP.

01 / 05 — Weekly Setup

Fed Week.
Mag Seven Earnings.
GDP Data.

Week of July 28, 2026 · SWP Market Thesis

Primary theme: This is the most important week of earnings season. MSFT and META report Wednesday. AAPL and AMZN report Thursday. The Fed announces its rate decision Wednesday at 2PM ET — markets are pricing a 62% chance rates stay unchanged.

Geopolitical relief: Iran has temporarily suspended retaliatory attacks. Diplomacy is ongoing. Oil is pulling back — WTI down ~4.5% heading into the week. This reduces one tail risk but the situation remains dynamic.

GDP + PCE Thursday: Q2 GDP preliminary and Core PCE both drop Thursday morning before AAPL and AMZN report. Two major macro prints plus two Mag Seven earnings in the same day.

Approach: We do not hold into earnings. We trade the setup before or the reaction candle after. Structure over hype — let the market show us direction first.

02 / 05 — Stocks on Watch

Names We're Watching

8 names this week — Mag Seven earnings, fintech, semis, AI plays

MSFT — Reports Tuesday AMC. Azure + AI + Copilot monetization. Key read for entire tech sector.
META — Reports Wednesday AMC. AI capex + ad revenue + capex guidance. ~6% move priced in.
AAPL — Reports Thursday AMC. Strongest name in the market. Services + AI integration + China.
AMZN — Reports Thursday AMC. AWS growth + advertising + AI infrastructure capex.
PLTR — AI government + commercial momentum. Watching key levels for continuation.
COIN — Showing signs of life. Watching BTC for confirmation before any entry.
AVGO — Strong PE, solid semi name. Watching for a clean entry setup.
NFLX — Looking ideal technically. Watching for continuation off current structure.

03 / 05 — Key Levels

Levels That Matter

Support and resistance — updated weekly · Week of Jul 28

SPY — Support $736–$737 · Resistance $741–$743 (psych $745). Range bound — Fed decision sets direction.
QQQ — Support $676–$677 · Resistance $683–$685. Flushed with semis — watching for stabilization.
NVDA — Support $192 (lose it → $188) · Resistance $197–$202 · Ceiling $212. Below $195 = bearish lean.
AAPL — Support $328 · Psych $335 · Resistance $338–$340. Strongest name in the market right now.
TSLA — Support $303 (lose it → $298 → $277–$280) · Resistance $307–$310. Below $303 flips resistance.
SMH — Support $537 (tested multiple times) · Resistance $563. Semi ETF — watching for base confirmation.

04 / 05 — Earnings This Week

Earnings Calendar

Most important earnings week of the year — week of July 28, 2026

MSFT — Tue Jul 29 (AMC) — Azure + AI + Copilot monetization. Sets tone for entire tech sector Wednesday morning.
META — Wed Jul 30 (AMC) — AI capex + ad revenue + capex guidance. ~6% post-earnings move priced in by options market.
AAPL — Thu Jul 31 (AMC) — Services revenue, AI integration, China commentary. Strongest name in the market right now.
AMZN — Thu Jul 31 (AMC) — AWS cloud growth + advertising + AI infrastructure spend.
COIN — Thu Jul 31 (AMC) — Showing signs of life. Crypto market reaction + BTC correlation in focus.
CVX + XOM — Fri Aug 1 (BMO) — Energy sector read. Iran diplomacy impact on margins and guidance.

AMC = After Market Close · BMO = Before Market Open · Trade the reaction, not the guess. Never hold into earnings blind.

05 / 05 — Scenarios

Bull · Base · Bear

How we see the week playing out

Bull Case — Fed holds rates, tone is dovish. MSFT and META beat and guide higher. AAPL and AMZN follow through Thursday. GDP comes in solid. SPY breaks above $743 and runs toward $750+. Risk-on across the board.
Base Case — Fed holds, press conference is neutral. Earnings are mixed — some beat, some disappoint. GDP is in line. Market stays range-bound between $736–$743 on SPY. Sector rotation continues. We trade the reactions, not the anticipation.
Bear Case — Fed turns hawkish or surprises with a hike. Earnings disappoint on AI capex guidance. GDP misses. SPY loses $736 and tests $728–$730. QQQ breaks $676 and semis roll over again. We go to cash and wait for structure.

Structure Over Hype · Capital First · Updated every Sunday night.

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